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Holiday shoppers plan to spend more cautiously this season, according to The NPD Group, Inc., a leading market research company. Previous reports have stated that 30 percent of consumers plan to spend less this season, but stores will still be crowded with shoppers looking for that perfect gift. How will they find it?


“All of our indications suggest that consumers will shop but be more cautious in their approach,” said Marshal Cohen, chief industry analyst for The NPD Group. “The study’s results show consumers will be doing their homework a bit more carefully this year.”

Close to half of surveyed consumers said they plan to comparison shop before they buy—a five-year high, according to Cohen. And although shoppers will still be looking to catalogs and television ads for deals, this year savvy consumers say online research will be their first course of action. And price is the bottom line: 62 percent of consumers say “Overall value for the price” determines where they plan to shop, followed closely by 61 percent who look for a “Special sale price.”

Over the past few years, consumers have learned to expect deep discounts as the holiday season progresses and this year is no exception—41 percent of consumers plan to start their holiday shopping Thanksgiving weekend or later. But Cohen warns that this year may be different.

“This year retailers are carrying less inventory and the products that consumers really want may just run low or even be out of stock in some stores,” said Cohen. “If consumers wait too long expecting bigger discounts they may just be surprised to find that the item they want won’t be there. It will be the informed consumers who will find what they want, buy early and on sale.”

How can retailers survive the hoards of bargain shoppers? “I do think the gift of the leaner inventory may be the ‘gift that keeps on giving’ to retailers this year,” noted Cohen, “One of the primary things retailers need to do is to wean consumers from the expectation of deeper and deeper discounts as the holiday season unfolds. This process of ‘discount detox’ (weaning the consumer off the deep discounts) is critical in getting retailers to return to being profitable again.”

The NPD Group is the leading provider of consumer and retail information for a wide range of industries. Learn more at www.npd.com.

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